Forebodings of proxy start of World War III

Sadeq Khan

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The Vienna Consensus of November 14, arrived at in an all-inclusive meeting of the International Syria Support Group, with the Arab League, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States in attendance, is in grave jeopardy. The Vienna consensus had obtained commitment of all stake-holders to coordinate their separate military operations against ISIS, by exchange of information and coordination.

But within 10 days that consensus was sought to be nipped in the bud by the downing of a Russian tactical bomber Su-24M by missile attack from a Turkish fighter aircraft F-16, on the ground that the Russian Su-24M had violated Turkish air-space for 17 seconds, and the Turkish F-16 had sent 10 successive warnings over 5 minutes obtaining no response.

Moscow denies violation
The pilot who ejected from the downed bomber was shot dead in the air (a violation of Geneva convention) by Turkmen rebels, said to be backed by Turkey but also supported by al-Qaeda in holding grounds against both ISIS and the Syrian government. The co-pilot Captain Konstantin Murakhtin survived, rescued by the Syrian Army. He told reporters at Khmeymim Air Base that “there were no warnings – not via the radio, not visually. If they wanted to warn us, they could have shown themselves by heading on a parallel course. But there was nothing.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin in his instant reaction said, Russia was stabbed in the back. Turkish authorities had acted as accomplices of the terrorists, he said and warned that there would be serious consequences for relations between Russia and Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan said his military had acted within the norms of Turkish rules of engagement and invoked right of self-defence. Before the news of downing of the Russian plane reached anywhere, the first thing that President Erdogan did was to request NATO Secretary General for an emergency meeting.
On behalf of the Russian Armed Forces Lt.Gen. Sergei Rudskoy issued a statement on the incident that narrated as follows: The objective monitoring data confirmed that the Turkish warplane did not make any attempt to establish a communication or visual contact with the Russian bomber. The missile hit the Su-24M aircraft over the territory of Syria. The bomber crash place is on the territory of Syria four kilometres far from the borderline. The Su-24M crew managed to eject. According to the preliminary data, fire from the ground killed one of the pilots. The objective monitoring data shows that the Russian aircraft did not cross the Turkish borderline. Data received from the Syrian Air Defence Forces confirmed this fact as well.
Russian preparations
Moreover, radar reconnaissance data, which was received from the Hmeymim airbase, registered Syrian airspace violation by the attacking aircraft of the Turkish Air Force. This fact is assessed as a flagrant violation of international law with extremely grave consequences and the direct breach of Memorandum on air incident prevention and flight safety over the Syrian Arab Republic, which had been signed by the USA and relevant for all countries of the coalition, including Turkey.
In order to evacuate the Russian pilots from the landing point, a search-and-rescue operation was conducted by two Mi-8 helicopters. In the course of the operation, one of helicopters was damaged by small arms fire and performed an emergency landing in the neutral area. One contract serviceman – member of Marine Troops – was killed.
Alpaslan Celik, a deputy commander in a Syrian Turkmen brigade, holds handles believed to be parts of a parachute of the downed Russian warplane.
In the action area of the Russia aviation, the Syrian governmental troops are conducting operation on elimination of illegal armed groups, which include over 1000 militants from the North Caucasus according to the Russian data sources.
None of the Russian partners and none of the states, which are fighting against ISIS has mentioned that there are units of so-called “moderate opposition” in that they do not recommend to make strikes in this area.
Now the General Staff is elaborating additional security measures for the Russian airbase. 1. All the activities of the attack aviation will be carried out only under cover of fighter aircraft. 2. Air defence will be reinforced. For that purpose, the Moskva cruiser equipped with air defence system Fort analogous to the S-300 one will go to the shore zone of Latakia. Russian Defence Ministry warns that all the potentially dangerous targets will be destroyed. 3. Contacts with Turkey will be terminated at the military level.
Talks for de-escalation: NATO
President Francois Hollande of France was visiting President Barak Obama in Washington. In a joint press conference, President Obama said NATO ally Turkey had a right to defend its airspace—but also appealed to Russia to engage at the side of the “65 countries” battling IS in Syria: “Given Russia’s military capabilities and the influence they have on the Assad regime, them cooperating would be enormously helpful in bringing about resolution of the civil war in Syria. If and when they do, it will make it easier for us to go after ISIL.”
Both Hollande and Obama continued to insist that Assad step down in order to give Syria a chance for peace, with Hollande saying “it should be as soon as possible.”
NATO Secretary General also backed Turkey’s right to defend its air-space, but called for de-escalation of tension by talks.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to his Turkish counterpart in a phone conversation. Lavrov told the press thereafter that Turkey’s foreign minister had expressed his sincere condolences to him, but the Turkish minister tried to excuse the incident by saying that Turkey did not know it was a Russian jet. “We have serious doubts it was an accident and prepared footage of the jet downing suggests it was not (an accident),” Sergei Lavrov said. “It all looks like a planned provocation. I reminded him [Turkish foreign minister] that on Russia’s initiative a hotline between the Russian National Defense Control Center and the Turkish Defense Ministry was established. The line was established at the beginning of the Russian Aerospace Forces operation in Syria, and was used neither yesterday nor before that, which provokes serious questions. Lavrov also wondered “whether Turkey consulted the US before downing any jet in the Syrian airspace.”
‘No war against Turkey’
The Russian Foreign Minister in response to a question said: “We’re not going to wage a war against Turkey, the attitude toward Turkish people has not changed. We have questions only to the current Turkish government.”
But he said, Russia will seriously reassess all agreements with Turkey. As for specific measures, Russian government has recommended our citizens not to travel to Turkey, (reportedly several tourist operators already responded by withdrawing tours to Turkey from their menu) and Moscow backs the proposal of French President Francois Hollande to close the Turkish-Syrian border. The Russian Foreign Minister also complained: “We received no condolences from NATO or the European Union.”
Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said, some Turkish officials have “direct financial interest” in the oil trade with the Islamic State terrorists: “Turkey’s actions are de facto protection of the Islamic State. This is no surprise, considering the information we have about direct financial interest of some Turkish officials relating to the supply of oil products refined by plants controlled by ISIS. The reckless and criminal actions of the Turkish authorities… have caused a dangerous escalation of relations between Russia and NATO, which cannot be justified by any interest, including protection of state borders. Russia is considering cancelling several important projects with Turkey and barring Turkish companies from the Russian market.”
At the NATO emergency meeting, Turkey obtained the moral backing of other NATO members for its right to defend its air-space, but the advise was for de-escalation of tensions without apologising for financial and military backing provided by some NATO members to “moderate rebels” who fight against the Asad government in Syria. Russia considered many al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front extremists simply masquerading as “moderate rebels”.
Russian missile deployment
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said that Russia would deploy S-400 defense missile systems to its Hmeymim air base near Latakia, on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. The missiles have a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles), according to missilethreat.com website. The Turkish border is less than 30 miles away.
Some Commentators in the media are foreboding the initiation “by proxy” of a Third World War. Meanwhile the High Representative/Vice-President of the European Union, Federica Mogherini held a phone conversation with the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on the downing of a Russian jet. HR/VP Mogherini conveyed to Minister Lavrov her condolences for the soldier killed, and underlined the importance to join forces in the fight against Daesh (ISIS) and to coordinate the efforts.
Mogherini and Lavrov agreed on the need to safeguard the diplomatic track for the Syrian crisis opened in Vienna, and to proceed with the agreed timeline decided at the last meeting of the International Syria Support Group, that would constitute the most effective basis for effectively defeating Daesh on the ground.
Source: Weekly Holiday