A challenger to Modi?

Kenneth Bo Nielsen

Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP may soon be recognised as a national party

India’s Aam Admi Party — the party of the common man — is widely regarded as a Delhi-centric party, but this may be about to change.

In early February, the voters of Goa and Punjab cast their ballots, and when the votes are counted, AAP may be well on its way to becoming a recognised “national party.”

The major anti-corruption protests that gave birth to AAP, and which were led by Anna Hazare took place in Delhi. And it is in Delhi that AAP has its only chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, who in 2015 led the party to a landslide victory.

This has given the party a popular image of being first and foremost a Delhi party, but the fight against corruption and for clean government that defines the party’s agenda certainly resonate with popular aspirations outside of the national capital.

In Punjab, the party already has a significant presence. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, AAP received nearly 25% of the votes cast, and won four seats in the national parliament.

AAP has seemingly managed to remain popular despite some serious infighting between Kejriwal’s headquarters in Delhi and some of the local AAP leaders in Punjab.

The fight against corruption and for clean government that defines the party’s agenda certainly resonate with popular aspirations outside of the national capital

A few polls even predict that AAP can win a majority of seats on its own, while other polls suggest that it will be a key player in a hung state parliament. As in the key state of Uttar Pradesh that is also currently electing a new state assembly, youth unemployment is a major issue in Punjab, and AAP is hoping that it can capture the so-called “youth wave” that may or may not have swept across the state.

In the small state of Goa, AAP also appears to have generated considerable enthusiasm especially in the southern areas. Their political meetings have reportedly been well-attended, and the party’s political manifesto has been formulated through an ongoing dialogue with Goan voters via several hundred Goem Samvad, or “Goa-dialogues,” which the party has held since the summer of 2016.

The purpose of these meetings was to give people an opportunity to tell AAP’s candidates what was on their mind, and what their political aspirations were. Based on this input, AAP formulated its political manifesto for Goa. In addition to being an innovative method of policy formulation, the many Goem Samvad have also helped the newly formed party embed itself in Goa, and to strike a chord with at least sections of the Goan grassroots.

Many Goan voters complain that the state’s two main parties — the BJP and the Congress party — are remote-controlled from Delhi, and are therefore incapable of truly representing Goan interests. With Kejriwal’s authoritarian leadership style in mind, many Goan voters might be tempted to think that AAP would not be very different in this regard.

But through the many Goem Samvad, the party has sought to show that it actually takes Goan voters seriously.

The party has chosen Elvis Gomes as its chief ministerial candidate. Gomes is, like Kejriwal, a former bureaucrat with a good reputation and a clean image. Some social activists who have previously engaged in, for example, the fight against mining, casinos, and environmental degradation more generally, also stood for election on an AAP ticket.

The party’s campaign was focused, sustained, and well-executed compared to the other parties, but a great deal of uncertainty persists regarding AAP’s ability to convert enthusiasm into votes and, more importantly, seats in the state assembly.

Both Punjab and Goa are of course relatively insignificant when set in the bigger picture of national politics. But, there is nonetheless a good deal at stake for AAP. The party is currently recognised as a “state party” only in Punjab and Delhi, but there is a good chance that it may obtain this status in Goa as well in connection with the current elections.

If this happens, AAP “only” needs to become a recognised “state party” in one more state in order to qualify for membership in the exclusive club of officially recognised “national parties,” a status that only seven parties currently have.

If Kejriwal is serious about emerging as the main political challenger to Narendra Modi, it certainly helps to be able to call oneself the leader of a “national party.”

Kenneth Bo Nielsen is coordinator of the Norwegian Network for Asian Studies.

Source: Dhaka Tribune